Wednesday, June 18, 2014

Petraeus Says No to US Striking Iraq

More: The war horses have their nose under the tent. The United States said it would send in special forces "advisors" to bolster the failing Iraqi Army and operate in FAC. The Current Occupant, under pressure to save the government in Baghdad, will wake from his nap today to address the nation and inform them of yet another military operation in the Middle East. Iraqi government officials say they are in control of the nation's largest oil refinery at Baiji, but eyewitnesses say the militants are still inside the perimeter, albeit not in control of the vast complex. Some reports said they were in total control at one point on Wednesday or Thursday. Sharp clashes between government forces, Shia volunteers, and ISIS fighters are occurring at Baquba, forty miles north of Baghdad. Political opponents of al-Maliki are maneuvering to oust him from power and they claim they have US support. Maliki said on Iraqi television he will not quit. Guardian reports that his resignation will be a quid pro quo for US intervention.

18.06.14 The United States should NOT lend its air force to Iraq to battle militants closing in on Baghdad according to General David Petraeus. The retired general and former director of the CIA was disgraced by sexual scandal, but he is still credited with the US troop "surge" strategy that survived the Iraqi civil war. He said the United States should not become embroiled in a sectarian war that has waged in Iraq since its borders were drawn by the Great Powers at the Versailles peace conference. The former commander of US forces in Iraq, also said the United States should not be supporting a Shia-dominated Iraq government that is seen to be unfair to the country's minority sects*. He made his comments at a political conference in London. He did not dismiss airstrikes entirely, but he made it clear he did not think the Maliki government could meet the political prerequisites for a US intervention.  Meanwhile, ISIS and their jihadi allies continue to pressure Baghdad and are fighting for control of a major refinery at Baiji. Reuters reports the rebels are in control of 75% of the refinery. It is situated in a Sunni controlled province 130 miles north of Baghdad; the town of Baiji was overrun by militants last week.

Reuters: Baiji refinery
One of the clear errors of the Libyan intervention is that the militias the US and its European allies chose to support are militant islamists. The Libyan militias now control the infrastructure in a country that is essentially lawless. Ousted dictator Muammar Qaddafi, while disliked by western corporatists for his "resource nationalism", at least maintained order and security. Libya even made advances in the quality of life for its citizens under Qaddafi. Al-Maliki in Iraq has continually marched towards increasing authoritarianism by locking out minorities from power. General Petraeus said the Baghdad government has lost the opportunity to avoid sectarian warfare which it had in 2011. The US set up a series of initiatives intended to co-op the Sunni community, but those were allowed to fail. Instead Maliki's government chose to "go after" Sunni Arab political figures, and treat Sunni demonstrators harshly. The Untied States shares responsibility for creating unstable conditions in volatile countries by rash military adventures, so it is refreshing to see a respected American political figure speaking out for restraint. Contrary to the embittered ravings of former Vice-President 'Darth' Cheney, whose inflated dreams of American global hegemony got American forces bogged down in Iraq, US Person thinks the limits of US military power have never been more clearly demonstrated. It seems our leading hero-general agrees.

*Not only is fairness involved. Iran holds large sway over Iraqi's Shias. It will undoubtably want to negotiate a favorable nuclear deal with the United States in return for its cooperation against the militant Sunnis attacking Baghdad. Air power alone is impotent against organized ground forces, now equipped with anti-aircraft weapons. The equation becomes: militant Sunnis in Baghdad, or a nuclear armed, revolutionary Iran?