Sunday, May 04, 2014

Chart of the Week: Putin's Dream of "Novorossiya"?

The Current Occupant continues to blame Russia for the revolt in Ukraine, but that allegation is rather naive or extremely cynical for what is happening in eastern Ukraine is an ethnic separatist uprising. It may be advised and supported by Moscow but that does not belie the fact that pro-Russian separatists consider themselves Russians.  A "green man" was asked by a BBC reporter where he came from.  He replied, "Ukraine" but then added with a smile, "Actually there's no such nationality as Ukrainian. That's an Austrian-Hungarian deception. [referring to the 19th century European empire that included Ukraine] We're all Russian. And this land isn't Ukraine: it's Novorossiya--and we will defend it." To see the "New Russia" this green man is on about, look at the map:


Ukraine has effectively lost control of the eastern third of its territory. Pro-Russians activists have basically walked into official buildings and taken them over. There are reports of local Ukrainian officials failing to cooperate with Kiev's directives and riot police surrendering in Donetsk. If Moscow is orchestrating the revolt, its certainly has the strong support of ethnic Russian Ukrainians. The country is undeniably enfeebled by internal political division and official corruption. The United States naively stirred the pot in Kiev for its own commercial interests and now it's boiling over: Ukranians in the west are distrusted as fascists and Ukrainians in the east are derided as Soviet holdouts.

If Russia wants to re-establish historical "Novorossiya"--which US Person doubts--it is already part the way home. Swallowing such a large chunk of an impoverished country would cost the Kremlin billions--much easier to exert influence from across an international border without budgetary responsibilities. The Kremlin calls this arrangement Ukraine's "federalization" which would allow it to exert a good deal of influence over eastern regional governments. Putin referred to "Novorossiya" in his annual call-in show claiming "only God knows" why Novorossiya was incorporated into the Ukrainian soviet republic. God knows he dissembles. Putin should know of the Soviet policy of "Korenization", the bolsheviks apportioning territories in accordance with their ethnic composition which gave the region to Ukraine in 1922. An 1897 Russian imperial census showed Novorossiya was composed of a majority of ethnic Ukrainians. Under Stalin's reign of terror the region suffered major loss of population. After the WWII the region was redeveloped and many settlers came from other regions of the Soviet Union, and their cultural identity came with them. Their lies the rub.