[credit: Nate Beeler, Columbus Post-Dispatch]
Breaking: {02.03.14}Russian forces have effectively seized control of the Crimean peninsula according to the New York Times. Weaker Ukrainian forces stationed there put up little resistance to the Russian takeover. Crimea has been part of the Ukraine since 1954, but the pro-Russian Crimean prime minister called for Russian intervention on Friday to protect ethnic Russians in the majority on the pennisula. Sound familiar? It should because its the same formula used by the West to justify its own military incursions on behalf of its security. Interestingly, Ukraine is a Slav word for "borderlands". Does that suggest anything? What is needed now is for both sides to take a time-out and negotiate an internationally verifiable process for Ukrainians to determine their own future--be it union or divorce--without intrigues by either power except for financial aid to prop up Ukraine's broken economy.
Latest: {01.03.14}The upper house of Russia's parliament quickly approved in special session President Putin's request for the use of Russian forces in Ukraine until the situation in that country is "normalized". The crisis appears to be quickly spinning out of control as former Cold War adversaries square off over the future of Ukraine, once a portion of the old USSR and suffering a horrendous WWII legacy. Washington is giving the interim government moral support, but what it could do militarily against formidable Russian military forces in their home base is only crazy speculation on the part of US hardliners. A so-called "red line" in the Crimea is decidedly too dangerous; the United States refrained from any action when Russian forces responded to the Georgian invasion of South Ossetia by invading Georgia in 2008. Some independent commentators think Georgia's government was given a false sense of security by an imperialist US administration actively seeking defection of eastern European border nations. Any forceful UN action concerning Ukraine will undoubtably be vetoed by the Russia which has a permanent seat on the Security Council. Meanwhile in divided Ukraine, demonstrations broke out for and against the ousted anti-fascist government .
Further: The rhetoric coming out of Washington against Russia's moves in the Crimea are only part of a western diplomatic offensive that is taking place on multiple fronts. A Georgian delegation is currently visiting VIPs in the capital and Georgia's prime minister is scheduled to see the Current Occupant. Moldova's president is schedule to meet the V.P. next week. Both visits are intended to explore ways to integrate these countries more closely into western Europe. Their integration is problematic regardless of Russia's active opposition because they are very poor and the EU already has it hands full with its debtor members disparagingly referred to as "the PIIGS". Once again, talk is cheap and reality is inconvenient.
More: {28.01.14}Russian naval forces appear to be in control of Sevastopol airport near its fleet base in the Crimea; Sevastopol is not a civilian airport. Ukrainian Interior Minister said armed soldiers arrived by truck at the airport on Friday morning backed by armored vehicles. Also, armed men wearing no insignia but thought to be pro-Russian militia arrived at Simferopol airport, the main international terminal, overnight. According to the latest reports the airport is open and operating. Thursday saw armed men forcefully enter the Crimean parliament building to hoist a Russian flag on the roof. The parliament announced it would hold a referendum on May 25th on the question of expanding the peninsula's autonomy from Ukraine. Russia assured the West it would respect the territorial sovereignty of Ukraine under an international agreement signed in 1994 after the US Secretary of Defense warned Russia against incursion.
{28.02.14} Americans are famously disinterested in foreign policy, but a foreign storm is brewing on the flanks of Russia that threatens to engulf US in a 21st century version of the Cuban Missile Crisis. That would be hard even for self-absorbed Americans to ignore. Ukraine is in the process of breaking apart with the western two-thirds of the country wanting closer ties with the EU, while the Russian speaking eastern third remains culturally tied to mother Russia. The Crimea is a Ukrainian appendage already autonomous, but also majority Russian. It is home to key Russian military installations including the Black Sea fleet. The Kremlin wants Ukraine to remain united under its economic domination and fears the West is attempting to lure the coutnry into its sphere of influence. Ukraine's defection could potentially move the NATO military alliance up against Russia's borders, a situation akin to missiles in Cuba. President Putin and his advisors are deeply suspicious of the pro-western opposition, believing it is fascist at heart (Svoboda and Right Sector parties) and manipulated by western intelligence. The former elected president fled the country after the political opposition demanded he face trial for the killing of demonstrators by security forces during violent street riots. Viktor Yanukovitch is now in Russia. EU's foreign policy chief left Kiev this week after failing to set up a government among the opposition parties.
The reality is that Ukraine is a fiscal basket case kept alive on Russian subsidies and trade. It needs $35 billion to refinance debts, but western banks have cut off credit. President Putin suspended an installment of a $15bn loan because of the unrest. The upheaval was triggered by Yanukovych's refusal to accept austerity measures as part of an association agreement with the EU last autumn. Oligarch Yulya Tymoshenko was released from prison last week by the parliament and spoke to the crowd occupying Kiev's Independence Square on Saturday night. She is a darling of western media and European governments since she helped lead the Orange Revolution during the breakup of the Soviet empire, but the former deputy prime minister is widely considered to be corrupt, especially in the Russian-speaking eastern part of the country. She was an unindicted co-conspirator in a money laundering case against political crony, former Prime Minister Pavlo Lazarenko who was convicted. He is alleged to have steered lucrative natural gas deals her to Tymoshenko. Russian Prime Minister Medvedev denounced what the West is characterizing as a democratic revolution to be a right-wing putsch that jeopardizes the legitimacy of Ukraine's entire government. As much as the US State Department likes to mouth platitudes about spheres of influence having no place in the 21st Century, it better stop poking the Russian bear with a stick over Ukraine because the bear still has plenty of teeth.