Saturday, September 28, 2013

UN: Sarin Used, Probably by Syrian Government

Whaa?? The UN produced a good fruit when Resolution 2118 was adopted unanimously last night by the Security Council. It enforces the agreement reached between the United States and Russia on destroying Syria's stockpile of chemical weapons. Secretary of State John Kerry said there "will be consequences" if Syria does not live up to the agreement to put an estimated 1,000 tons of chemical weaponry under international control by 2014. Syria must provide open and unrestricted access to UN weapons monitors by October 1st and achieve complete destruction of its production equipment by November 1st; these deadlines were decided by the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons. Britain and China offered to finance the international operation. It is the first time former cold war adversaries were able to come together over Syria; Syria's chemical arsenal is a legacy of the Cold War. But Russia insists any alleged violations of the agreement have to "be proven 100%" and that the agreement also applies to the rebels. President Putin and his ministers publicly allege the gas attack at Ghouta which killed hundreds was a provocation by Islamist extremists in the rebel ranks, but have been unable to convince the world that was the reality. UN inspectors led by Swedish scientist Ake Sellstrom are now investigating sites of alleged chemical attacks beyond Ghouta including the village of Khan al-Assal where government forces were exposed to a toxic agent. Western governments believe that case was a friendly fire incident. A report on the findings is expected by the end of October. Although the adopted resolution refers to Chapter VII of the Charter which allows force to be used as a last resort, Russia is likely to veto military intervention against its client, Syrian dictator Bashir al-Assad. Ohter provisions of the resolution endorsed the US-Russia disarmament plan adopted by the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons at the Hague hours earlier, and endorsed the 2012 peace conference call for a peaceful transition government until elections can be held in Syria.

{26.09.13}Further: The United States and Russia agreed to a draft text for enforcing the agreement to rid Syria of chemical weapons today. The text will be discussed by the full Security Council on Friday. A vote could take place as early as Friday evening. Although the draft refers to Chapter Vll of the UN Charter which allows the use of military force, a second resolution authorizing such force on behalf of the United Nations would be necessary. Up to now Russia has opposed using force against Syria's dictator, Bashir al-Assad. There is also no mention of referring Assad to the International Court of Justice for alleged war crimes including the use of nerve gas against in the civil war that is destroying his country. However the British UN envoy described the document as binding and enforceable. The US-Russian proposal to destroy Syria's chemical arsenal must be accepted by the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons which oversees the implementation of the 1973 international Convention on Chemical Weapons.

{23.09.13}Latest: Syria has met the first deadline set up by the United States and Russia in a process to rid the state of chemical weapons. On Friday, Syria submitted an initial inventory of its chemical arsenal which United States officials found surprisingly complete.  A senior official of the current administration said it was encouraged by the submission.  The submission went electronically to the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons in The Hague. The UN Security Council is still debating a resolution to enforce the agreement reached in Geneva by the world's two remaining superpowers. Russia and the United States were able to reach a consensus on the size of Syria's chemical arsenal rather quickly. Locations of chemical weapon materials are not agreed upon, and the locations appear to be changing as the Syrian government moves stocks to protect its arsenal from attack. The US has identified 45 sites it thinks are associated with chemical weapons. By November the first international monitors are supposed to arrive in Syria and inspect all of the declared sites and equipment. The agreed goal is to rid Syria of all chemical weapons by the middle of 2014.

{17.09.13}Update: The UN weapons inspector's report [page nos.]containing scrupulous detail provides more evidence that the regime of Bashir al-Assad was responsible for the Ghouta gas attack that killed hundreds of Syrians. The early morning attack occurred when cold air could press down on nerve agent delivered by rockets of "significant chemical payload" [56 liters in one casing examined, p21], driving the lethal gas into homes, basements, and cellars. Multiple traces of sarin were found on rocket casings designed to carry liquid chemical agents; some casings carried Cyrillic lettering indicating their original source in Russia [p19]. Chemical weapons experts agree that the number of rockets fired, their trajectories, and the method of use indicates a military chemical warfare operation based in government held sectors of Damascus. The rebels are generally considered to be materially incapable of mounting a barrage of the scale at Ghouta. Casings found by the UN inspectors include a 140mm surface to surface rocket, an M14 artillery rocket, and a 330mm artillery rocket used before by Syrian government forces. The UN's chief inspector Ake Sellstrom told Russian envoy Vitaly Churkin in the Security Council meeting where the report was submitted that the sarin used was of a higher quality than Saddam Hussein's and that it bore no indications it was improvised. The Russian government officially maintains it has evidence the sarin previously used in the civil war was not of professional manufacture. That apologia has now officially been laid to rest. Secretary Ban Ki-moon called the findings "beyond the pale" and that the Ghouta attack is a grave violation of the 1925 Geneva protocol against the use of chemical weapons. Without laying direct blame on the Syrian regime, the Secretary also said, "the international community has a responsibility to ensure that chemical weapons never re-emerge as an instrument of warfare."  US Person can certainly agree with the Secretary on that principle of international law.

{15.09.13}UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said Friday in a speech to a women's forum that the UN has "overwhelming" evidence of a nerve agent attack at Ghouta in the suburbs of Damascus on August 21st. The statement was made two days before the head of the UN weapons inspection team Ake Sellstrom makes his much anticipated report to the Security Council today. The Secretary did not say who was responsible for the use of chemical weapons in Ghouta, but he did accuse Bashir al-Assad of being responsible for crimes against humanity during the 2½ year long Syrian civil war. A diplomatic source at the UN said the weapons inspectors found multiple samples containing sarin, and also collected circumstantial evidence indicating Syrian government complicity in the attack that American officials say killed over 1400 people including more than 400 children. But the source also said the evidence will not be enough to end the Security Council's deadlock over Syria. Russian President Putin said earlier he will need to see compelling "direct evidence" of Syrian government involvement, not just signals intelligence from western powers, before he would authorize military action against his client, Syria. Whether he would consider spent rocket casings with sarin traces, "direct evidence" remains to be determined. Mr. Putin has steadfastly maintained since the attack was discovered that the use of nerve gas, now established as a certainty, was a rebel provocation intended to provoke the US into a military intervention

Meanwhile, at Geneva talks between Secretary of State Kerry and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reached an agreement to strip Assad of weapons of mass destruction. The dictator, who faces responsibility for crimes against humanity committed during the civil war, must provide a comprehensive list of its 1,000 ton stockpile of chemical weapons by Friday or face the consequences. Under the agreement terms, Syria must allow UN weapons inspectors to complete an initial inspection of his chemical arsenal by November. A deadline for elimination of the weapons is set for the middle of next year. A unilateral US military strike against Syria that was doomed to failure now seems a distant nightmare scenario given success of peaceful US-Russia management of a serious threat to world security. Stay linked to this space for developments.