Chart of the Week: The Failed War Within A War

{28.05.12} Afghanistan will undoubtably be categorized as an American military failure on the order of Vietnam for at least three major reasons: 1) the Taliban enemy is still a viable fighting force; 2) modern nation building has failed despite the investment of billions because of corrupt quislings and a lack of widespread support from the indeginous population; 3) Afghanistan's main cash crop, opium, has not been eradicated. The map from NYT shows the amount of opium cultivation has not decreased significantly since the United States and its NATO allies invaded in 2001; Taliban control of the south is demonstrated by the high levels (red areas) of poppy cultivation there. Dismantling the narco-state was a top objective of war planners. Ambassador Richard Holbrooke, former special envoy to Afghanistan wrote that breaking the illicit opium economy was "essential, or all else will fail". A prescient statement that is now being fulfilled.

The last stand of the 44th Foot

Officials admit that as the US and NATO withdraw, opium cultivation will undergo a resurgence. The number of poppy free provinces reached a high of 20 in 2010. That level has dropped to 17. Improved interdiction captures only about 3.5% of the 375 tons of heroin which leaves the country every year. The West's most successful counter-narcotics operation in the Helmand River valley has coincided with a 33% decrease in poppy cultivation, but 14,000 US Marines are scheduled to leave the area by the end of this year. Whether disincentive programs will remain in operation is questionable. Meanwhile opium prices in the field are up to $320 per kilogram. A detail that speaks volumes about the insidious drug trade in Afghanistan: the British found 20,000 lbs of opium in the office of the Helmand province governor Sher Mohammed Akhundzada, an ally of President Hamid Karzai, in 2005. He was removed from office at the insistence of the British, but later Akhundzada was named to the Senate. Many Afghan power brokers including those close to Karzai are believed to be involved in the drug trade.

More: A recent report by the Pentagon's former director of intelligence assessment (he should know, right?) draws the conclusion that most of the development funds the US has showered on Afghanistan went to security forces not to the country's development. The aid was erratic, making long range projects difficult to carry out. The aid, when it did come, was "too late to prevent the rise of a major insurgency".  And there has been no systematic measurement of its effectiveness. The system "virtually invited waste, fraud and abuse".

Furthur:  Eight more Afghan civilians were killed in a NATO airstrike over the weekend. Reports from Paktia Province say a family's home was hit by a bomb during close air support of a joint ground operation, killing six children and the parents. "Collateral damage" has become a sore issue with the Afghan government and people, contributing to deteriorating relations and distrust of western forces. Likely the number of civilian casualties will increase as the United States removes ground troops and substitutes robotic warfare in its efforts to eliminate terrorists. The Obamanator has given more latitude to drone attacks in the Af-Pak theatre of operations and Yemen, where al-Qaida is very active. Since just last month there have been 14 drone strikes in Yemen and 6 in Pakistan. Now, drones attacks can be authorized on targets that possess the requisite "signature", or profile of characteristics, without identification of specific individual terrorists. So if a group of young men are attending a social function in the wrong place at the wrong time, they could be wiped out by an aerial robot. This impersonal warfare is deeply resented by a culture that places a premium on personal honor. According to convicted terrorist Faisal Shahzad, the use of drones has become a recruiting tool of choice for jihadists.  The Obamanator signs off on each drone attack outside Pakistan making him a frightening, actual version of "Dr. Strangelove".