Monday, December 12, 2011

Chart of the Week: Russian Politics, American Style

This scatter chart shows an interesting relationship which would not be unusual for an American political party where a Congress members performance is often judged by how many federal projects the member brings home.
This election in Russia was a troubling one for Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and his United Russia party. A relationship between the number of votes for United Russia and the amount of government subsidies an area receives still holds for the 2011 election, but the vote totals for his bloc is down. The consensus of election observers is there were widespread irregularities including ballot stuffing, but the fraud was not enough to give Putin's party more than half of the parliamentary seats, down from its previous 70% ruling majority. The Communist Party was the surprise winner in the election filling 92 seats in the Duma; some Russians believe "grandma" would have beaten United Russia but for the tampering.

Election fraud on December 4th has brought middle-class Russians out into Moscow's streets in a cold version of the Arab Spring demonstrations [photo: Le Monde]. On Saturday, 50 to 80 thousand demonstrated their displeasure with the Putin regime by four hours of critical speeches, capping a week of street demonstrations. The BBC reports 600 arrests in Moscow alone including the well known political blogger Alexey Navalny. Uncharacteristically, state controlled mass media covered the protests in a neutral manner. Protesters are upset with the election process and want the results investigated by the Central Electoral Commission, but its final report on the election was signed last Friday and is unlikely to be changed. Since the end of Soviet rule, Russians have been politically quiescent except for widespread approval of Vladimir Putin. During his previous time in office he consolidated state control and curbed civil rights. That unquestioning love affair seems to be at an end now, but it is unlikely Prime Minister Putin will be defeated for his third six year term as president of Russia.

Nevertheless, Mr. Putin seems perturbed about the unexpected flowering of grass roots democracy. He resorted to blaming US Secretary of State Clinton for stirring up trouble by her critical comments on parliamentary politics, saying "she set the tone for some act[ivists] and gave them a signal. They heard the signal and with the support of the US State Department began active work." Secretary Clinton in Lithuania last week said the Russian elections were "neither free nor fair". Protesters derided Putin's allegation of US intrigue as ridiculous. The United States does fund programs which it claims are only intended to support a more transparent and fair Russian electoral process. Russia does not actively fund similar programs in the US, for example, to improve the voting process in Florida or Wisconsin or discourage the passage of onerous voter eligibility laws. The blogosphere, as it has in the Arab protests, played a central role in disseminating information and mobilizing young voters. Many young Russians acted as unofficial election observers, some posting videos of authorities bribing or cajoling subordinates to vote for United Russia.