Monday, June 06, 2011

Chart of the Week: Where the Oil Is


More:  The US House of Representatives under the speakership of John Boehner (R) passed a resolution with votes from both parties rebuking the Obamatron for not seeking an authorization from Congress to participate in the Libyan intervention.  Obamatron & Folks, Inc. called the resolution unhelpful and unnecessary since their position is the War Powers Act does not apply to the war in Libya.

Now that Washington had the Memorial Day recess to estimate the size of Congressman's Wiener's 'package'[1], perhaps Congress can turn its short attention span to passing a resolution authorizing the United States to legally wage war against Libya[2]. The War Powers Act still has not been complied with, and the maximum ninety day period for the use of US troops without a congressional authorization has expired. NATO has already voted to extend operations for another 90 days, but that is a case of the tail wagging the dog. Support for the NATO air offensive against Qaddafi is not uniform within the alliance. Our closest allies are the most willing to use force to remove Qaddafi. France, which is Libya's largest oil customer, led the diplomatic effort for UN Security Council action, but the Tory government in the UK was also vociferous in demanding a "no-fly" resolution on ostensibly humanitarian grounds. Talking tough and acting tough are always two different propositions. Only 15 member states out of 28 are contributing in some way to the military operation in Libya. Only seven are conducting air strikes[3]. Eastern Europe, with Germany prominently in their company, is absent from the BBC's list of belligerents. Germany also abstained from the Security Council vote to authorize intervention, but reportedly supports aerial interdiction.

As the chart suggests this conflict is about Libya's oil production.  Since the civil war began in the north, oil production has slowed to a trickle as fighting occurs around key oil installations, notably the terminal of Raz Lanuf [map].  Both the rebels and Qaddafi are counting on oil money to fund their operations since Libya has Africa's largest oil reserves. Qaddafi has threatened to sue any company buying oil from the rebels. The rebels hope to use the Arabian Gulf Oil Company as an outlet and Qatar has offered to assist the rebel council with oil sales of doubtful title. Rebels are also negotiating with the British government to take possession of hundreds of millions of dinars printed in the UK. The nation's dictator definitely has the advantage in ready money; early in the rebellion his government gave away $400 to every family, while loyalists in Tripoli go as much as $13,500, a car, and a gun.  Qaddafi's foreign mercenaries are paid $10,000 to sign on and a daily wage of up to $1000. The country's cash reserves are believed to be in the "tens of billions" according to Ibrahim Dabbashi, a deputy UN representative who defected. Gold reserves are also huge, but less liquid. Dabbashi says Qaddafi is believed to have stashed gold and money in shipping containers and sent it south to the desert in the 1990s.

As the song rightly says, "send money, guns and lawyers". For its part the UN, which authorized western intervention in the civil war, sent in UN investigators to assess the allegations of war crimes. Perhaps predictably the subsequent report says both sides have committed abuses that would constitute war crimes, but the rebels' crimes are not as numerous as those of the government's. Neither side is prepared to give in at this point. South African President Jacob Zuma talked to Col. Qaddafi last week, but Qaddafi told him emphatically he would not leave Libya, believing the war to be a neocolonial resource grab while his departure from power is the main condition set by NATO and the rebels for any ceasefire. How long can Qaddafi continue to resist is now the question. Food and water supplies will become critical the longer the four month old conflict continues. Qaddafi appears firmly in control of the capital, Tripoli, and his government despite the defection of his oil minister. According to the Libyan government NATO has killed 718 civilians and wounded 4,067, 433 seriously in its "humanitarian" efforts.

[1]the Congressman neither confirms or denies the estimates. US Person points to the Congressman's other prominent appendage as an indication of the size of his endowment.
[2] Narrow statutory interpretation arguments that the War Powers Act excepts the Libya intervention from its terms because the intervention is being pursued under the authority of NATO or the UN are inapposite. The UN charter is not self enforcing and there is no pre-existing statutory authority authorizing the use of the US Armed Forces to enforce its provisions. Likewise, the exception in the Act's Section 8 for participation in military headquarter operations is prima facianot meant to include actual combat operations. If Congress wants to issue standing authorization for the President to use US Armed Forces to enforce UN Security Council resolutions, it may do so, but it has not done so to date. The Founding Fathers, in our federal papers, envisaged the executive war power to be executed according to statutory authority given by Congress, thus the limitations imposed on unauthorized war in the War Powers Act.
[3] US, Canada, Belgium, Norway, Denmark, UK, France. UK, France and Italy have also sent military advisers to aid the rebel cause.  Al Jazerra has posted a video in which non-Arabs are seen in the company of rebel forces.  Presumably these are western advisers or forward air controllers.