Sunday, August 01, 2010

Chart of the Week: Yo Chief, Can You Spare a Job?

Establishment economists are tooting their horns about how the government saved America from the Second Great Depression. In a report authored by a Princeton economist and a Moody's analyst it's claimed the financial collapse of '07-08 would have been much worse without the massive government intervention into the economy and the temporary takeover of two giant auto manufacturers. The "full range of policies" kept GDP 15% higher and the unemployment rate 6.5% lower according to their computer model. US Person does not doubt it could have been worse without the massive infusions of capital ($3.7 trillion according to he government's own figures) in various forms.   But a 'dead cat bounce' in the economy is not much to show for the trillions spent. Looking at these employment charts, you could never tell the "Great Recession" is over:
The bars show high and low unemployment figures for each of the states with the current level in red. The economies in states like Nevada and Michigan are so bad that estimates of the likelihood of the state defaulting on its current obligations are close to 1 in 3! Oregon has the largest number of food stamp recipients in the state's history, over 700,000. The housing industry is suffering the worse collapse in US history.  In three years, 2006-09, the largest industry in America loss 79% of it's housing starts.  After the massive federal effort to stimulate the industry with tax incentives and buying mortgage backed securities, the industry recovered less than 1/10 of this historic bust.
This chart shows initial unemployment claims are down from the peak in January '09 but they show no sign of dropping to previous levels. Yet the economy grew at 2.4% in the previous quarter and 5% in the last quarter of '09. The true unemployment rate is 16.5% not 9.5%, and if you get even more real and include the long term unemployed, the shocking figure is 21.6%.  That is Great Depression levels of unemployment!  The higher figure includes those accepting temporary employment while looking for permanent positions and those who have stop looking for jobs not there.

Could it be that corporate bosses are using an old capitalist trick to grow their profits by squeezing payrolls and doing more with less? Awash in a perpetual labor surplus, they can afford not to hire additional workers and instead demand increases in productivity or wage decreases. Workers are compelled to comply. By now largely de-unionized and burdened with debt, they cannot afford to loose their incomes and expensive health benefits. They are stuck without economic leverage in debt peonage. Look at this chart and decide for yourself:
Compared to previous economic recessions since WWII the current one has been far worse for workers:
A record 46.2% of the workforce has been out of work for 27 weeks or more. That is DOUBLE the worse level ever recorded since record keeping began in 1948. Anyone who would vote for a Republican, the party that voted against extending unemployment benefits, is either rich or from Arizona.