Thursday, July 15, 2010

Hudson Bay's Polar Bears Headed for Extinction

Prince Charles rightfully accused climate change skeptics of practicing "pseudo science" at a recent London climate conference.  The scientists involved in the e-mail scandal that may have derailed the Copenhagen climate summit have been exonerated of wrong doing by an independent commission.  And now this tragic announcement by Canadian scientists studying the  second most southern population of polar bears at Hudson's Bay. These bears have reached star status, attracting visitors from all over the world, becoming the global symbol of environmental damage done by global warming. But a new study based on mathematical calculation of their energy storage capabilities, ice cap shrinkage, and the increasing length of time the bears spend on land without food indicates the bears are doomed to extinction in 25 to 30 years. The vital connection between sea ice and the bears' ability to hunt has been known to biologists for some time {"polar bears"}, but this study is the first computer model of the affects of loss of sea ice. The study's conclusion is backed up by ground observations of the bears' physical condition. The west Hudson Bay population is the most studied of all polar bears populations. Since 1980 there has been a gradual decline in their average weight of 60 lbs. The number of bears has also declined from 1200 to 900.  Bears have less and less time to hunt for their favored prey, the ringed seal, and less time to store fat for the summer months when sea ice retreats from the shore, leaving the bears without a source of meat. Arctic sea ice reached its lowest recorded extent in 2007. Despite the strong evidence of a threat to this population's survival, skeptics have managed to convince the Canadian government not to take steps to save the bears.  Scientific caution is a good thing, politically motivated denial something else entirely.

[photo: an underweight mother waiting for the ice, Andrew E. Derocher, University of Alberta]