Monday, September 28, 2009

Chart of the Week: The Economy on FIRE

What these two charts show is that the financial sector of the United States has grown disproportionately to the rest of the economy (l). At the same time, this growth was created by the issuance of private debt in the form of novel derivative instruments (r). The primary means used to prevent the collapse of this 'virtual' economy has been injections of massive amounts of public capital and the end of "mark to market" accounting standards. Instead of valuing securities at what the current market would pay for them, banks and other financial institutions can value their securities at whatever value their computerized economic models project. Enron pioneered this method of accounting alchemy. Without an end to mark to market standards the derivative and loan positions of sixteen of twenty money center banks (the "too big to fail" class on taxpayer support) would be insolvent. The rule change allowed Wells Fargo to report its most profitable quarter ever, and Citibank to claim a $2.8 billion loss was actually a $1.6 profit. Rather than eliminating trade in risky derivatives, the five biggest banks are again exposing themselves to risks in the derivative markets that far exceed their assets in return for big profits, and repackaging their money-losing securities into higher rated ones called "real estate mortgage investment conduits" or "re-remics". Even more bizarre behavior is the creation of "life settlements" which are life insurance policies that are packaged into bonds to be sold to investors. Essentially it is the creation of an entirely new bond market that allows firms to gamble on the lives of the sick and elderly*; Or, you could simply call it money laundering.

*Goldman Sachs, the nations largest trader in derivatives, was 44's largest private campaign contributor according to the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics