One of my goals here at Persona Non Grata is to poke holes in the propaganda balloons sent up by the conservatives in Washington--a full time, unpaid job. Just last night on the venerable rant fest, McLaughlin Report, a right-wing gas bag had the temerity to shout out the party line about how the "surge" in Iraq has worked. She irritated me more than usual because this fantasy is often repeated by their elderly presidential candidate on down. It is a documented fact that the "Anbar Awakening" began in November, 2005 when US commanders in Ramadi reached out to Sunni tribal elders in an effort to quash insurgents affiliated with Al Qaeda[1]. (The fact that Al Qaeda in Iraq is a violent reaction to the US occupation is a consequence never discussed by war supporters.) The Awakening was a tipping factor in the security equation, and started well before the introduction of more U.S. troops which did not reach a zenith until September 2007. What amounts to bribery of Sunni tribesman to fight with the U.S. against terrorists in Western Iraq has largely worked, even though the tactic contravenes Army counter-insurgency doctrine developed in part by General Petraeus. Paying Sunni tribal mercenaries to fight with US forces does not increase their loyalty to an Iraq central government dominated by Shiites. There are some 90,000 Sunni fighters on the U.S. payroll.
Another critical factor contributing to the recent reduction of US casualties is that Baghdad has been ethnically cleansed by Shia and Sunni militia fighting in 2005-07. These ethnic fault lines have been opportunistically adopted and reinforced by US troops. The Sunni minority in the city has either been killed, or has fled to Syria and Jordan. (1.5 million Iraqi refugees in Syria, 750,000 in Jordan) The remnant is huddled in fortified neighborhoods protected by US patrols and outposts from further depredations. The security equation is further simplified for General Petraeus by the decision of nationalist cleric Muqtada Al Sadr in August 2007 to stop fighting the al Maliki coalition with his Mehdi militia. Muqtada, who is a seasoned political in-fighter, has his own reasons for not making occupation more difficult for American troops. According to US agent Ahmed Chalabi, "Muqtada and the Sadrists have benefited from the ceasefire. Despite what people say it has done them good because it makes them look reasonable--something they badly needed." The Sadrist movement is the only real mass movement in Iraq, according to observer Patrick Cockburn, and is the voice of the poor Shia who make up much of the Iraqi population. Muqtada's goal is to end the occupation one way or another. So the next time you hear someone besides McBush gassing about how "doubling down" has worked in Iraq, tell them why they are full of hot air.
[1]cooperation with US forces spread after an influential young sheik, Abdul Sattar al Rishawi, set up a council of tribal leaders, the Anbar Salvation Council, to establish an alliance in September 2006. The sheik was later killed by insurgents despite US protection.