Monday, August 13, 2007

The Last Elephant

In an impressive technical gambit that is the beginning of the biggest colonial scramble since Africa in the 19th century, Russia planted a titanium version of its national flag on the floor of the Arctic Sea beneath the North Pole using two deep submersibles, Mir 1 and 2. The subs reached a depth of 14,000 feet to drop the flag canister a fortnight ago. A conservative British daily called the expedition "a stunt" and the Canadian Foreign Minister derided the perilous mission saying that planting flags to represent territorial claims is behavior out of the 15th century. Nevertheless, the Russians made a very public claim to the seabed beneath the North Pole because the stakes are extremely high. The Arctic seafloor may be the last "elephant", the euphemism oilmen use for a large, rich oil and gas field. Estimates of the amount of petroleum beneath the ice range from one fifth to one fourth of the planet's undiscovered reserves. There are five nations with Arctic territory--United States, Canada, Russia, Denmark and Norway-- that want to stake claims to the seafloor. The US Geological Survey estimates that at current rates of warming drilling under Greenland's northeast shelf can begin in 2022.

All of these nations hope to claim portions of the seabed under Article 76 of the Law of the Sea, a UN convention that has been signed by 155 countries as of July. Despite drafting much of it in the 1970's the United States has not ratified the treaty. Conservative opposition in Congress sees the treaty as unduly restricting U.S. options. That position may change now that recovering Arctic oil is becoming feasible. Making a valid claim to the seabed under the convention hinges on presenting detailed scientific evidence such as geologic, seismic, and bathymetric data that demonstrates your continental landmass extends undersea. The Russians have claimed publicly precisely that since the 1920s when they published maps showing that the Lomonosov Ridge, a 1,100 mile long undersea mountain range that bisects the Arctic, belongs to Russia. It submitted a formal claim to the UN in 2001, but that was rejected as premature and Russia was asked to provide more supporting data. The claim would cover 460,000 square miles of the Arctic Ocean. A six week expedition ending in June allegedly provided a breakthrough in information needed to support the claim. But the deputy director of Russia's Institute of Ocean Geology said that the earliest it could present a credible claim was 2010. The latest expedition can be seen as a confirmation of Russian intent to perfect it's claim.

The U.S. also has significant stakes in the Arctic. It has scanned the Arctic seabed with multi-beam sonar since 2003. The Alaskan shelf alone contains an estimated $650 billions worth of petroleum, and the U.S. has an eagle eye on the fabled Northwest Passage which is slowly clearing of permanent ice. Shipping to and from Asia via the Northwest Passage and its Eurasian counterpart, the Northeast Passage could drastically cut time and cost. Canada considers the northwest route it's own since the inter-island straits are within the 200 mile exclusive zone. While it accepts Canada's territorial claim, the U.S. considers the NW Passage to be subject to "innocent passage" as a active strait like Gibraltar, or the Dardanelles, under the Law of the Sea. A 1969 crossing by the reinforced tanker S.S. Manhattan caused Canada to pass legislation in 1970 asserting the right to control Arctic traffic. More recent crossings led to an informal agreement that the U.S. will notify Canada of transits and Canada will not deny permission. U.S. subs regularly use the Passage, but these transits are probably not announced. China has adopted the same innocent passage position and recently sent a large ice breaker, the Snow Dragon, into the Passage where it disembarked passengers at a Canadian settlement. All of this global interest has prompted Canada to conduct "show the flag" military operations in its far northern regions such as Devon Island. Prime Minister Harper recently said his government will adopt a "use it or lose it policy" and build two new military bases and six armed patrol vessels for the region.

Despite a dispute over the ownership of Han Island off Greenland, Canada and Denmark are cooperating to prove that the Lomonosov Ridge is actually connected to Canada's Ellesmere Island and Denmark's Greenland. Denmark claims the North Pole itself. A Danish Geological Survey expedition to collect gravity, seismic and bathymetric data set sail this month from Tromsoe, Norway supported by Swedish and Russian ice breakers. Norway has filed a 96,000 square mile seabed claim under Article 76 backed up with bathymetric data last year. An estimated 21 billion tons of coal sits in Ellesmere Island. Inuit hunters poke holes in the ground to release methane gas which they light to produce heat for warmth. North to the Pole, the next black gold rush is on.